Analyst: Election Polls Underestimating Republican Margins By 5%

  • The polls they are a changin’.
  • In a generic ballot released this week by USA Today, Republicans are up four points over Democrats, 49-45.
  • That’s a huge change from USA Today’s previous poll in July when Democrats led Republicans 44-40.
  • So voters are clearly moving hard — and picking Republican candidates. But the polls are still underestimating the GOP strength, one pollster says.
  • “I think the ‘polling averages’ are going to end up (on average) underestimating the Republican margins by a net of 5%,” Mason-Dixon Polling Managing Director Brad Coker told The Daily Wire in an email.
  • “I think the GOP will end up with 54 Senate seats. I don’t track House races district-by-district, but I generally think the Republican Party will net a gain of somewhere between 25 and 35 seats.”
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