A new poll from Cygnal, the private polling firm ranked among the most accurate in the country in 2024, shows voters overwhelmingly support deportation and robust ICE enforcement heading into the 2026 midterms.
Cygnal’s memo reports that 73% of likely midterm voters say entering the United States without legal permission constitutes breaking the law, a view shared by 82% of swing voters, 70% of independents, and 99% of Republicans, while only 48% of Democrats agree.
The firm argues that this baseline perception shapes attitudes toward enforcement, with 61% of voters supporting deportation of people in the country illegally, including 64% of swing voters and 59% of independents. Democrats break sharply in the opposite direction, with 67% opposing deportation.
According to the survey, 54% of midterm voters back ICE’s enforcement role, compared with 59% of swing voters, 52% of independents, and 94% of Republicans. Democrats again diverge, with 81% opposing ICE enforcement. Cygnal notes that 58% of voters oppose defunding ICE, including 66% of swing voters and 92% of Republicans, while 68% of Democrats support defunding the agency.
The firm says Democrats begin with a D+4 advantage on the generic ballot among all midterm voters, but that margin disappears when voters are told Democrats want to defund ICE, shifting the race to R+0.
Cygnal says Democrats’ position on immigration could be “electorally devastating,” arguing that Republicans benefit from drawing sharp contrasts on enforcement. Cygnal frames the issue as a “rule of law” divide, asserting that Democrats are “on a different planet” from most voters and that GOP candidates stand to gain by emphasizing deportation and ICE authority.
