The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday predicted that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could be below normal as El Niño intensifies amid its development.
NOAA’s outlook predicts a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, with between eight and 14 named storms likely to develop. Between three and six of those storms should develop into hurricanes, including one or three that become category 3, 4, or 5 major hurricanes. Hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30.
El Niño, the weather pattern where water temperatures near the equator of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above the historic average for months at a time, will develop and intensify. These conditions typically support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, with warmer water temperatures and low winds possibly leading to a more active season in 2027.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a report. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
NOAA’s outlook does not forecast when hurricanes could make landfall. The outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns and not “where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns,” the agency stated.
