A central issue in Virginia’s 2025 gubernatorial race is the state’s role in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a controversial emissions-reduction program.
Democratic candidate Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) is a vocal supporter, describing RGGI as a common-sense, market-oriented approach to curbing harmful greenhouse gas emissions. Her opponent, Republican candidate Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, strongly opposes the program, blaming it for an energy crisis and rising costs across the state.
With the race tightening, RGGI has emerged as a defining campaign issue—prompting many voters to ask: what exactly is RGGI?
What Is RGGI?
Established in 2009, RGGI was the first mandatory market-based program in the U.S. aimed at reducing power sector emissions. It operates by setting a regional cap on total carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and issuing a limited number of allowances—each permitting one ton of CO₂ emissions.
These allowances, primarily distributed through auctions, can be bought and sold on the open market among participating states. The system incentivizes plants to reduce emissions, as doing so is intended to be more cost-effective than purchasing additional allowances.
This model, known as “cap and trade,” was first conceptualized in the 1980s as a compromise between free-market advocates and pragmatic environmentalists, according to Smithsonian Magazine.
Although Earle-Sears frequently refers to RGGI as a “carbon tax” or “energy tax,” the program differs from a traditional carbon tax in a key way: it sets a cap on total emissions rather than a fixed price per ton. This structure allows for greater flexibility and closer alignment with market dynamics.
Revenue from allowance auctions is directed toward strategic energy and consumer benefit programs, including investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and greenhouse gas abatement.
A Brief History of RGGI
RGGI’s origins trace back to 2005, when governors from Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont signed a memorandum of understanding to establish the framework. A Model Rule was published in 2006 to guide state-level regulations. Massachusetts, Maryland, and Rhode Island joined in 2007, and by 2008, legislation was finalized to launch the program.
Since its inception, RGGI states have reduced power sector carbon emissions by more than 50%, while continuing to experience economic growth.
In 2016, the Congressional Research Service noted that “experiences in RGGI may be instructive for policymakers seeking to craft a national program,” though no federal initiative has followed.
State-Level Turbulence
Despite its successes, RGGI has faced challenges with state participation. New Jersey exited the program in 2012 under Governor Chris Christie, citing ineffectiveness and economic burdens. Critics argued the withdrawal violated the Administrative Procedure Act. The state rejoined in 2020 under Governor Phil Murphy, who prioritized climate action.
Pennsylvania formally joined RGGI in 2022 under Governor Tom Wolf, but its entry was stalled by legal challenges. The Commonwealth Court ultimately ruled the regulations unconstitutional, arguing Wolf lacked legislative approval. Governor Josh Shapiro is currently appealing the decision.
Virginia’s path to RGGI has been similarly fraught. The process began in 2017 under Governor Ralph Northam but was blocked by a 2019 budget provision from the Republican-controlled legislature. In 2020, a Democratic majority passed the necessary regulations, and Virginia officially joined RGGI in 2021.
However, Governor Glenn Youngkin withdrew the state from the program in 2022, citing increased energy costs and a rising cost of living. Critics argued Youngkin lacked the authority to reverse legislation. In November 2024, a Virginia circuit court sided with the Southern Environmental Law Center, ruling that the state must rejoin RGGI. Youngkin appealed, and in March, the Floyd County Circuit Court paused Virginia’s reentry indefinitely.
With Youngkin’s term ending in January 2026 and the legal battle ongoing, the future of Virginia’s RGGI membership hinges on the outcome of the 2025 election.
Campaign Positions
Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears has made her opposition to RGGI a cornerstone of her campaign. Writing in the Washington Examiner, she attributed Virginia’s energy crisis to insufficient supply.
“Liberals in their ivory towers look at this supply and demand problem and think the answer is to cut the supply, and demand will follow,” Earle-Sears wrote.
Her platform calls for expanding access to all forms of energy—fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear—and reducing regulations she describes as burdensome. She argues that eliminating the “energy tax” will create jobs and lower electricity bills.
Earle-Sears also criticized Maryland’s energy policies, claiming the state “shut down power plants, imposed huge taxes on energy production, and delayed new and badly needed power lines.” She added, “Today, Maryland is a net importer of energy.” While Maryland does import roughly 40% of its energy, it has been a net importer since at least 1990—well before joining RGGI.
She further noted that Virginia’s electricity production declined by 9% during the year RGGI regulations were in effect.
Rep. Abigail Spanberger, meanwhile, has pledged to prioritize rejoining RGGI. In a November 2024 interview with the Virginia Scope podcast, she emphasized the program’s environmental and economic benefits.
“As we’re seeing some real devastation in Virginia,” Spanberger said, “recognizing that in a future where we rejoin RGGI, it’s not only important to the goal of reducing our state’s emissions and meeting some clean energy goals, which are incredibly important, but it’s also unbelievably valuable for our ability to use this revenue to make investments in our community.”
She highlighted the $227 million Virginia earned from allowance auctions while participating in RGGI, which funded flood relief and energy efficiency programs.
Spanberger’s campaign also addresses rising energy costs, proposing to meet demand by streamlining regulations for clean energy development and leveraging RGGI’s market-based structure to allocate resources more efficiently.
What’s at Stake
Whether Virginia’s multi-billion-dollar energy sector will be subject to RGGI regulations in 2026 depends on the outcome of this November’s election. With legal battles unresolved and public opinion divided, the future of the state’s climate policy hangs in the balance.
