Top Pollster Runs 1,000 Simulations, Predicts Biden Beats Trump | Off The Press


Top Pollster Runs 1,000 Simulations, Predicts Biden Beats Trump

FILE - This combo image shows President Joe Biden, left, Jan. 5, 2024, and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump, right, Jan. 19, 2024. (AP Photo, File)

The 2024 presidential election starts out in our forecast as a toss-up. While former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a small amount of movement — or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans — could result in President Joe Biden’s reelection.

Right now, Biden is favored to win in 521 out of 1,000 simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in 475 of our simulations. In 4 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

Our forecast launches just a week and a half after Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection to a scheme to pay hush money to a porn star during the 2016 election. Since May 30, he has lost ground in the polls, with his national margin in 538’s polling average falling from +1.7 to +1.0 as of Monday at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Our forecast today thinks there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political “fundamentals” indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points. But he still lags in the key swing states, with his margin at just 1 point in Pennsylvania, the likeliest state to tip the Electoral College to either candidate, well within our uncertainty interval.

And with five months left until Election Day, there is still a lot of room for the polls to change, as indicated by the 3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes come Nov. 5.

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