The level of U.S. employment for the 12 months through March could be slashed by as many as one million jobs when the government publishes its preliminary nonfarm payrolls benchmark estimate Tuesday, economists predicted.
The payrolls benchmark revision would come on the heels of news last Friday that job growth almost stalled in August and the economy shed jobs in June for the first time in 4-1/2 years. It would suggest the labor market was already struggling before President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on imports. An immigration crackdown by the White House has undercut labor supply, while a shift by businesses to artificial intelligence tools and automation is curbing demand for workers.
“The slowdown in job growth is less about a sudden collapse and more about a gradual recalibration by businesses facing technological change, higher financing costs, and uncertain policy signals,” said Sung Won Sohn, a finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University.
“The era of easy job gains is over. The economy is entering a more complex and uneven phase of adjustment.”
Economists estimated that the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics could revise down the level of employment from April 2024 through March 2025 by between 400,000 and 1 million jobs.
The estimate is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data from the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2024. QCEW data for the first quarter of 2025 will be published together with the payrolls estimate.
