STEVE KORNACKI: We see every four years the Latino vote becomes a bigger and bigger share of the overall electorate. Well, among Latinos, our poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 54% to 40%.
Now, for some context. This is a little bit better for Democrats than they were doing among Hispanics when Joe Biden was their candidate. But I think the bigger story here is historically. 54% to 40% now is a 14-point advantage for the Democrats. Take a look back at the last three presidential elections, and these were the results in the exit polls among Hispanic voters. That 14. Look at that cut there of almost 20 points less than just four years ago. And four years ago, we were saying Donald Trump had made inroads with Hispanic voters.
This suggests that that has continued apace. So what is driving this shift? Well, we see a few big gaps here. A gender gap. Familiar with this one, certainly. Men tied when it comes to this race. Women, a 26-point advantage. Again, among Hispanic voters here, there’s a gender gap, as we see with polls of overall voters.
Also, age is a big factor here. Look at this. Voters over 50, Hispanic voters over 50, almost a 60-point advantage for Harris, and she’s barely leading with Hispanic voters under 50. In fact, among men under 50, Donald Trump actually leads in our poll by 9 points, a 9-point advantage there, men under 50 for Trump. We also see an education divide. Again, we talk about this a lot when we’re talking about the overall pool of voters too. Men without four-year degrees, that’s now a double-digit Trump constituency in our poll. Men with degrees siding with Harris here, bigger margins among women, but we are seeing a bit of that education gap.
