As the United States heads into the election year, Joe Biden is showing concerning weakness among the Democratic base. In particular, Donald Trump is leading among Hispanic voters and young people. The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll has revealed that one in five Black voters plan to support a third-party candidate in the upcoming November election.
In the poll, Biden is narrowly trailing Trump at 39%-37%, with 17% of respondents supporting an unnamed third-party candidate. However, when seven candidates are specified by name, Trump’s lead increases to 3 percentage points, with independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the top of the third-party candidates, receiving 10% support.
These results highlight the daunting task that lies ahead of President Trump if he hopes to win a second term. Despite a reasonably sound job performance, Biden has failed to consolidate support in key parts of the coalition that helped elect him in 2020.
For instance, the Roper Center shows a precipitous decline in Biden’s support among Black voters. While he carried 87% of the Black vote in 2020, his current support has plummeted to 63%. Biden also trails among Hispanic voters by 5 percentage points, a stark contrast from his dominating victory over Trump among this demographic group in 2020, where he won by a 2 to 1 margin at 65%-32%.
Michelle Derr, a 55-year-old small-business owner from Alexandria, Virginia, a suburb just outside Washington, expressed disappointment that there are “two old white guys in this race again.” She intends to vote for Biden but wishes to look forward to the future and expressed uncertainty about the path ahead.
Biden’s failure to consolidate support among the Democratic base should concern his campaign team. His deficits among Black and Hispanic voters, two critical voting blocs, could prove to be his undoing. As the November election draws closer, Biden will need to work harder to win over these groups if he hopes to tip the scales in his favor.
