Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is facing an uphill battle to secure the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election.
According to data from the secretary of state, unaffiliated voters in the state of New Hampshire account for 343,000 of all registered voters, surpassing the number of registered Republicans and Democrats.
Such voters are allowed to participate in the primary of their choice, and Haley will need to secure the support of a significant portion of them in order to win the state and gain momentum for her presidential bid.
Approximately 30% of unaffiliated voters in New Hampshire align with Republicans, 35% align with Democrats, and 35% are truly independent, according to estimates from Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and a political science professor.
Given former President Donald Trump’s stranglehold on the Republican base, Haley will need to secure the support of 70% to 75% of unaffiliated voters in order to win the state, which Smith notes is a tall order.
Despite closing the gap with Trump in New Hampshire, Haley still faces a significant challenge in winning the state. According to an average of polls compiled by website FiveThirtyEight, Trump currently holds a comfortable lead of 14 percentage points over Haley. This is despite recent efforts by Haley and her team to reach out to unaffiliated voters in the state.
Haley’s team has been relying heavily on digital outreach, using social media and email to target potential voters. The team has also been holding small, in-person events across the state where Haley can meet voters and answer their questions. However, these efforts may not be enough to win over the large number of unaffiliated voters in the state.
In addition to reaching out to unaffiliated voters, Haley will need to appeal to key Republican constituencies in the state, including veterans and business owners. She has been highlighting her own experience as a former governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, as well as her support for conservative policies on issues such as taxes and regulation.
