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Inflation Up, But No Surprises

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference on Dec. 13, 2023, in Washington. Confidence is growing among Federal Reserve officials and many economists that high interest rates and healed supply chains will soon defeat inflation. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Inflation rose in line with expectations in February, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on hold before it can start considering interest rate cuts, according to a measure the central bank considers its more important barometer.

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% on a 12-month basis and was up 0.3% from a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Friday.. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones estimates.

Including volatile food and energy costs, the headline PCE reading showed a 0.3% increase for the month and 2.5% at the 12-month rate, compared to estimates for 0.4% and 2.5%.

Both the stock and bond markets were closed in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

While the Fed looks at both measures when making policy, it considers core to be a better gauge of long-term inflation pressures.

Rising energy costs helped push up the headline reading, with a 2.3% increase. The food index edged up 0.1%. Inflation pressures came more from the goods side, which rose 0.5%, compared to the 0.3% increase for services. That countered the trend over the past year, during which services rose 3.8% while goods actually fell by 0.2%.

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