• Polling data has increasingly shown Republicans within striking distance of Democrats in races previously thought to be “safe” Democrats: the races for governor of Michigan and New York, the Senate races in Colorado and Pennsylvania, and several others.
• But a careful examination of most of the major polls found that, in the past three election cycles, their results have favored the Democrats by four to five percentage points only to have the outcome either be much closer or a statistical tie.
• Based on their findings as detailed at The Polling Monitor, Abraham and Pitts concluded that primary contests still deemed “leaning Democratic” by the polls are probably, in fact, leading the other way.

Tagged: 2022 Mid-Terms