Donald Trump is going all-in on his campaign to secure a commanding win in New Hampshire’s Republican primary, with the goal of achieving a sweep in the first two races that could all but ensure his victory in a November rematch against President Joe Biden. However, the looming question that remains is whether his last major rival, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, will be able to pull off an upset or cut into Trump’s margin.
To appeal to New Hampshire’s famously independent-minded voters, Haley has dedicated extensive time and financial resources to the state. As a result, all six registered voters in the tiny town of Dixville Notch cast their ballots for Haley over Trump in the first results released early Tuesday. The resort town is the only one in New Hampshire that opted to vote at midnight this year, providing an early indication of the candidates’ popularity in the state.
Trump won New Hampshire’s Republican primary by a significant margin during his 2016 presidential campaign. However, some of his allies lost key races during the midterms two years ago. Therefore, Haley must contend with an opponent who has a deep bond with the GOP base and has focused on winning the state in a decisive enough fashion to effectively end the competitive phase of the Republican primary.
If Trump is successful in winning in New Hampshire, he would be the first Republican presidential candidate to achieve victories in the open races of both Iowa and New Hampshire since their adoption as lead election states in 1976. This achievement would be a clear indicator of Trump’s continued grip on the party’s most loyal voters.
As Trump’s allies begin to pressure Haley, a former South Carolina governor, to leave the race ahead of the South’s first GOP primary on February 24, Haley’s position becomes increasingly tenuous. These calls will grow louder if Trump is able to easily win New Hampshire following his significant lead in the Iowa caucuses. Furthermore, Haley finished third in Iowa behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who ended his campaign only a few days ago.
The New Hampshire primary has long served as a crucial testing ground for presidential candidates, as it has a reputation for being a bellwether state. Its voters are known for their independence and discernment, having earned their moniker of being “cranky New Englanders.” As such, the results of the Republican primary in New Hampshire could have a significant impact on the presidential election later this year, indicating which candidate could emerge as the frontrunner in the race.
