With primary season under way, nearly one third of registered voters think the 2024 presidential election will not be conducted fairly or accurately, according to a new poll.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights shows that a majority of Americans have faith that votes will be counted correctly and the true winner of the contest will assume the role of the presidency.
The survey asked respondents, “How confident are you that the vote will be counted correctly in 2024?” and “How confident are you that the true winner of the 2024 election will be sworn in as president?”
Among likely voters, 37% indicated they were “very confident” that votes would be counted accurately in the November election and an additional 28% were “somewhat confident.” In contrast, 19% of respondents answered they were “not very confident” and 13% said they were “not confident at all” that the votes will be tallied correctly. Four percent of likely voters indicated they are “not sure.”
Likely Republican voters were evenly split and had the most doubts, with 48% saying they were either very or somewhat confident but 48% also saying they were not very confident or not confident at all and 4% unsure.
“There’s a clear pattern in this survey. A solid chunk of the GOP is prepared to doubt the results of the 2024 election, and only a tiny slice of the Democratic Party agrees,” David Byler, chief of research for Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “There was a moment – not so long ago – where the paranoid fringes of both parties were distrustful of official vote counts. But Trump changed everything.
“For many Republican voters, Trump isn’t an authority on politics. He’s the authority. So when he says an election is rigged, they trust him. Democrats have the opposite reaction. When they hear Trump attack America’s system for counting votes and naming winners, they rush to defend the system. Election administration – once seen as an arcane, intensely boring issue – has become one of the most highly contested, high-stakes issues in America.”
